The future of almost eve.., p.13
The Future of Almost Everything, page 13
Chapter 3
TRIBAL
TRIBALISM IS THE MOST POWERFUL FORCE in the world today, more powerful than the entire military might of America, China, Russia and the EU combined. Tribalism is the basis of all relationships, brands, families, communities and nations, but is also responsible for the darkest moments in human history.
Most people belong to many tribes
Neighbourhoods are tribes, members of sports clubs are tribes, football supporters are tribes. If there were no tribes, human beings would create them in a day. We need tribes to exist, to make sense of our world.
If you want to understand the forces on someone’s life, whether client or friend, their motivation, the basis of their values and decisions, you must first understand that person’s tribes.
Tribes will create new languages
We see tribalism in our love of national languages. Gaelic in Scotland was more or less a dead language 30 years ago. Now it is spoken in shops, heard on radio, taught in schools, and road signs are in both Gaelic and English. With French radio there is a strict limit on the amount of English language music that can be transmitted on air. The medieval French tongue langue d’oc is also experiencing a revival.
Language preserves ancient literature, poetry and songs – and vice versa. Language communicates who we are – even the accent in which we speak our mother tongue reveals our tribe. That is why it was so provocative when the new president of the Ukraine announced in early 2014 that it would be illegal in future for children to be educated in Russian in Russian-speaking parts of the country.
New tribes will also create new languages of their own, whether street slang or ‘texting’ speak, or as players of global online games.
Why people are hungry to join new tribes
As many as 2 billion people around the world have lost their birth tribes, or tribal ties have weakened. The most common reason is that they have moved to towns, cities, or indeed other nations, where old social ties are less strong. Another common reason is that their parents have split up, which might bring pain in their family tribe.
Tribalism is a basic human instinct that every culture celebrates, whether in birthdays, or marriages, or festivals. We all need to belong. And into that gap have come new tribe-makers. Brand directors, marketing managers, football coaches, social media gurus, club owners, church leaders, mosque preachers, music celebrities, mother and toddler groups, head teachers of schools, university professors or even friendly neighbours. Each creates new groups of followers or supporters.
Tribalism has driven 50 million from their homes
There are 50 million refugees in the world today, most of whom are victims of tribalism. Every day, over 30,000 more people are forced to leave their homes and 33 million are sheltering with friends, family or in camps within their own nations. A million more seek asylum each year, and a further 10 million are stateless – with no passport and no means of getting one. The poorest parts of the world house 86% of refugees; 6 million are internally displaced inside Syria; 4.5 million more in Colombia; 1.4 million in Sudan and 1.3 million in Iraq,
I have met many refugees and their children in over-crowded, muddy camps, living in temporary huts of earth and corrugated iron. It is a huge decision to leave everything and flee. For every refugee, there are many others who also live in great fear, but choose to remain. I estimate that over 350 million people today are either refugees or thinking about becoming so, have been refugees in the last decade, or have relatives who are refugees at the moment – 4.8% of all humanity.
Tribalism and the EU
Tribalism will dominate and threaten the future of the European Union, as a Tribe of Tribes. There is no common language or shared culture, and national interests are fiercely defended. The EU has muddled along, avoiding many tough decisions, but struggles to respond rapidly in a crisis, so will continue to be vulnerable to global shocks.
The European Union is likely to remain a cluster of inter-tribal compromises, dominated by Germany, and held back for at least the next 5–10 years by economic malaise in many of its poorest members. The EU is very good at passing new laws for trivial matters, and very bad at tackling fundamental issues. But hundreds of new laws make life more difficult and expensive for factories and retailers, and enforcement varies from country to country.
More strains in Europe from monetary union
I predicted before the 2008 crisis that tribal and economic strains in Europe were likely to become immense. It is hard to see how the eurozone will survive in its current form without even greater pain and unrest. Countries with very different economic problems and business cycles remain locked together by common exchange and interest rates. Expect further steps to closely integrate Euro economies, with more loss of national powers.
Greece has been overwhelmed by government debts, greater than 170% of the size of its economy while its economy shrank by 25% during 2008–2014. If there is no agreement to write off much of the debt, Greece is likely to default, and could well end up leaving the euro. Balance sheets of European banks are better prepared than they were, but such an exit could well be destabilising for the eurozone as a whole. Markets will speculate about which nation might be the next to exit.
The wider EU project is in deep political trouble, as I also predicted, with 30% of European MPs belonging to protest parties like UKIP (28% of vote), France’s National Front (25%), Denmark’s People’s Party (27%) and far-left Syriza in Greece (36%). Meanwhile, most people in Europe distrust EU politicians, few can name their Euro MPs or the president of the European Commission, and voter turnout is low.
America will continue to be a dominant EU partner
America still invests 3 times more in the EU than in the whole of Asia. And EU investment in America is 8 times that in India and China combined – while a third of all global trade is between the EU and America. The future of the EU will be overly dependent on the American economy for the next two decades, even though the only hope of strong economic growth will come from trade with emerging markets.
Farming subsidies still account for 40% of the entire EU budget. But as we have seen, the future depends on rapid investment in innovation, next-generation manufacturing, precision engineering, aeronautics, biotech, medtech, nanotech, Big Data, Internet of Things, mobile financial services, e-commerce, new venture capital, enterprise zones, joint ventures on emerging markets, and so on. So where is the equivalent-sized EU budget for such things?
The European project may yet be saved by some of the 500 million people from emerging nations who would like to live and work in the EU, legally or illegally. Many are highly educated, entrepreneurial, and bring investment with them, while others do unpopular jobs for low wages.
Corruption and control in the European Union
The EU will continue to be a corrupt, monolithic, non-accountable and wasteful institution. For the past 19 years, auditors have refused to sign off the accounts as accurate. In 2013, for example, they reported that €6 billion had been spent ‘in error’ – up 23% on the year before.
So how on earth do so many ‘errors’ and fraudulent decisions get made? I was asked to give a lecture on ‘Ethics in Leadership’ to some of the most senior leaders in the European Commission. At very short notice, I managed to get hold of an e-voting system, with a handset for each member of the audience, which allowed them to make secret responses to my embarrassing questions. Their answers were very disturbing but hardly surprising. The lecture was recorded and an edited version is on YouTube.*
Many participants admitted that they had recently been put under pressure to do something that they thought was morally wrong. In many cases this was something so serious, that in their own country it would have been likely to be on the front pages of the newspapers, should it have been revealed. What is more, most felt they had no choice but to obey. The person asking them was usually their own boss, and they had no one to turn to.
Trapped by fear
One leader came up to me afterwards, in obvious fear, to reveal a severe moral challenge he faced, in which he felt trapped. Looking over his shoulder repeatedly, he told me in a hushed voice how he felt corrupted, and did not know what to do. He feared what would happen to him or his family, if it became known that he had revealed what was happening. I was able to give him some practical steps to take.
It was clear in discussions with participants that the EU Commission pay, perks and other privileges are so generous, and employment prospects so poor if someone leaves the commission, that few can contemplate leaving. And, as I always say, when an executive is afraid to walk out over a matter of principle, he is already in danger of losing his soul. I am certain, therefore, that corruption will continue to be a feature of day-to-day life in the European Commission and in every agency that is subsidiary to it.
Despite all this, size and inertia will almost certainly enable the eurozone to muddle along for some considerable time, perhaps even for a generation or two, even if there are changes in the list of Euro or EU members.
Tribalism will reshape the United Kingdom
The vast majority of the UK lives in England, a nation within a nation that will struggle with identity, except during international sporting events. England has no national language (English is global), no well-recognised tribal dress, and has often been defined in the past by being British – which has irritated many who are Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish.
Discussions on public spending are not going to get any easier and whoever is in government will face pressure to cut costs or raise revenues, or both. And the less attractive government debt becomes to the markets, the more borrowing costs will rise.
Choices on tax or spending will therefore be very limited. This is what we can expect:
further cuts in government spending
strict control of public pay awards
increase in taxes for middle and high earners
allowing inflation to drift well above 2% targets at times, diminishing the value to lenders of low-interest government bonds
low corporation tax and other measures to encourage investment into the UK, and headquartering of multinationals
continued growth in UK strengths such as fashion, film, music, design, pharma, architecture, consulting
recovery of banking and financial services – with new revenue streams, related particularly to emerging markets
expansion of UK automated manufacturing, e.g., car industry
attracting a new generation of wealthy and highly talented settlers, who see the UK as a refuge
encouraging sovereign wealth funds to invest in new infrastructure
growth in exports to many emerging nations, benefiting from historic trade, cultural and language ties and relatively low UK wage inflation.
UK fantasy finally fades of being a global power
The UK has long had one of the highest figures for military spending in the world as a percent of GDP, but this level of spending will be almost impossible to maintain over the next decade.
The UK will continue to nurse a fading fantasy of being a global power, the second police force of the world after America – but this already looks absurd in the light of dwindling armed forces. In the 1940s, Britain still ruled over 25% of the world’s land area from London. It is hard for this independent-minded, island nation to cope with the thought of being ruled by the EU from Brussels.
There is a real risk that a referendum on EU membership will result in a ‘no’ vote, even if there is a wide range of concessions from the rest of the EU on things like migration.
Likely breakup of the UK
Expect a further vote on Scottish independence in the next decade, especially if the UK as a whole decides to leave the European Union. A second vote could well result in the breakup of the UK, despite arguments that oil revenues will be too low to sustain Scottish ambitions. And if not, we can expect a third vote, some years on. Tribalism is a very strong force, and the global trend is firmly set towards autonomy and self-government.
Royal reforms and an English flag flying
Tribalism will save the monarchy, albeit on a smaller scale, because otherwise there would be so little left of British or English culture. The fundamental problem with the monarchy is that royalty is based on genetic discrimination and family lines. This genetic elitism will seem increasingly bizarre and morally suspect to a people who have fought for equality of opportunity, fairness, and lack of discrimination.
Expect to see a rebirth of the English tribe: a fresh energy in a new generation who want to be as English as the Scots are Scottish, or the French are French. National state funerals, the last night of the BBC Prom concerts, international football matches and other events will help focus this new sense of tribal identity.
Future of Germany as the central tribe of Europe
Germany will continue to be the dominant economy and voice in the EU, particularly as the French economy continues to falter. Germany has the largest population of any nation in the EU, as well as a strong economy built on high-tech engineering. Such dominance in the EU was an inevitable consequence of the re-unification of East and West, after the collapse of communism, but may cause increasing resentment in future. Germany’s economic growth is likely to be held back to some extent by a rapidly growing number of older people, and by a shortage of low-cost, skilled labour, unless migrants enlarge its workforce significantly.
Germany’s geographical position at the heart of Europe will ensure it has a vital role in brokering tensions between Russia and the rest of NATO. Germany will be a very important partner in economic development for such neighbours as Poland. It will take at least 20 more years for all the economic differences to melt away between former East and West Germany, and for historic reasons for Germany as a nation to feel fully comfortable in exercising a strong leadership role.
France – tribal protests and radical change
France has been a dominant influence in the EU, straddling nations in north and south, as one of the world’s largest and most socially minded economies. However, France is in the midst of a profound economic and social crisis that will take at least a decade to resolve. The economy has been moribund, while public spending is 58% of GDP – more than any other European nation. Debt is 95% of GDP. So how will change come about?
A central part of French history is revolution by the masses against a powerful elite. In 220 years, France saw 11 radical and sudden regime changes. And today, the tradition of protest continues. For example, over 1.5 million people took to the streets in 2006 in a series of ‘Liberty’ marches against a new law that would have made it easier to fire workers under 26 years old who had less than 2 years of service. In 2010, more than 3 million people took to the streets in a series of protests over many weeks, against a proposed increase in retirement age from 60 to 62 for many public workers.
The scale of such protests has made France volatile, hard to govern and hard to reform. Voters are likely to go on favouring governments that promise higher social spending than in Germany and the UK, even if that means borrowing more money, breaking EU rules, and imposing punitive taxes on wealth creation or business in general.
So what of the future of France? Voters will continue to look for a leader who will save the nation, in the spirit of Napoleon I or General de Gaulle. They will also tend to look more fondly than the UK on the EU, as France was the nation that gave birth to it, and continues to see itself as a twin-power to Germany within it. However, the National Front won 25% of their EU votes in 2014, on an anti-EU ticket, and anti-EU protests could grow rapidly. In some ways, France is likely to remain fiercely tribal. For example, in its hostility towards the use of English in speeches by government officials to international audiences.
A radical transformation is likely to be seen eventually, but until it comes, expect further stagnation.
Future of Russia’s 160 tribes
Western Europe’s future stability and well-being will depend on many factors, but among the most important will be peaceful co-existence with Russia.
Russia will remain strongly nationalistic, as a mega-tribe of 160 different ethnic tribes, 140 million citizens spread across 11.5 time zones. Russia is a nation that has been forged by hardship and comradeship in adversity. Siberia makes up more than three-quarters of Russia’s landmass, with average temperatures below freezing, while 50% is forest and 11% is tundra, a bleak and treeless, marshy plain.
Russia’s future economy will depend on energy prices and exchange rates, both of which collapsed in 2014: Russia is the world’s largest producer of oil, second only to America in gas production. Oil and gas account for 70% of export revenues and government spending is hugely dependent on them.
Russian desire for strong leadership and nation
The Russian tradition is of strong, autocratic leadership, and powerful figureheads like President Putin will continue to enjoy popular support, so long as these figures deliver increased living standards, improved security and better public services, or at least so long as living standards do not drop too much as a result of the leadership’s actions. President Putin is likely to continue his strong grip on media and political movements, by popular consent.
Just 110 of Russia’s many oligarchs control 35% of Russia’s wealth, some of it gained rapidly by dubious means, at a time of chaos following the fall of communism. Government agencies have a long-term strategy to place great pressure on oligarchs who are ‘living off Russian money’ in other nations, as well as in Russia.
If you talk with members of the generation who grew up under the Soviet regime, you will continue to find warm nostalgia, tinged with slight sadness, when they look back to life as it was under Brezhnev. They will continue to point to full employment, regular pensions, stability, public order and respect for Russian traditions. But Russians born after 1980 have no such adult memories, and are already 35 years old today.
